Supply and Demand Driven PCE Inflation

Decomposition of inflation into supply-driven, demand-driven, and ambiguous components

Shapiro (2026), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking | Published Article | Working Paper

Each month, PCE price categories are split by whether the price move is more likely driven by supply factors or by consumer demand. Categories where neither signal dominates are labeled ambiguous.

Inflation Series

Headline PCE Core PCE (ex. food & energy)

Frequency

Year-over-year (y/y) Monthly (m/m) Quarterly (q/q)

Breakdown

Model with ambiguous category

Date Range

Start:

End:

Supply and Demand Driven Inflation Contributions

Precision = how confidently a price change can be attributed to supply or demand. Filter to show only categories above a chosen confidence level; the rest are grouped into ambiguous.

Show:

All categories High-confidence only Very-high-confidence only

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